My Top 5 Worst Predictions

Mark Gero
IEOR 190G
Assignment 4 Part 2
February 16, 2015

These are my Top 5 worst predictions that I found on the internet. Same as with the last 5 these ones were chosen based on their degree off of todays reality.

1) Everything that can be invented has been invented.» Charles H. Duell, an official at the US patent office, 1899. 

I chose this one because this is about as false as they come. In any day or age it is blatantly ignorant to think that all inventions have been invented, the same way it is ignorant to think that any record is permanent. This prediction is timelessly wrong as new inventions and patents will never cease to be invented.

2) If anything remains more or less unchanged, it will be the role of women. David Riesman, conservative American social scientist, 1967.

This statement is so woefully incorrect. This prediction was made before the widespread use of birth control which is and was a huge contributing factor in women eventually gaining equality (to the extent that they are equal in today's society). In a world where women and presidents, priministers, CEOs, as well as house mom, it is so patently false to assume women's place in society remains in the kitchen when women have shown time and time again that they are capable of anything a man can do.

3) «The multitude of books is a great evil. There is no limit to this fever for writing; every one must be an author; some out of vanity, to acquire celebrity and raise up a name, others for the sake of mere gain.» 
Martin Luther, German Reformation leader, Table Talk, 1530s(?). 

This prediction comes in contrast with all the point mentioned in class about the printing press and its value that it brings to society. With increased books, and the reading and writing that comes along with them, comes all of the positive externalities associated with increased education. Some of these are decreased crime, increased life expectancy, increased sharing of ideas. Overall education is in many senses the key to a successful and progress society, and the start of that is books.

4)That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced.» 

Scientific American, Jan. 2 edition, 1909. 

This prediction has a fundamental flaw in its reasoning. Just because there is no change in a set amount of time does not mean something is permanent. This flawed thought process may have been forgiven if he had not been talking about cars, which have progressed infinitely since 1909 and even today continue to progress with increase full efficient, design, etc.

5)«Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?» 

H. M. Warner, co-founder of Warner Brothers, 1927. 

While this prediction pales in comparison with the others as movies are not nearly as influential as cars or books, this shows a trend of people believing they understand humans. There are many quotes referring to rock and roll and rap as fads that won't persist. This prediction follows the same  flawed thought process of executives believing they fully understand what they audience want or will want in the future.

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